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The
Government's chief scientist today gave his starkest warning yet about the
world's increasing carbon emissions saying that even the best-case
scenario put millions of lives at risk by the end of the century.
Professor
Sir David King said that a 3C rise in global temperatures is likely within
100 years, a process that will lead to a rise in sea levels and increase in
desertification that will place 400 million people at the risk of hunger.
Parts of Britain will be
flooded as the UK comes
under coastal attack.
Developing
countries will be the hardest hit, with ecosystems failing to adapt and
between 20 million to 400 million tonnes of cereal production being lost,
according to Sir David.
He said
the temperature rise would be the consequence of carbon dioxide levels of
500 parts per million, roughly double those of the Industrial Revolution.
The current carbon dioxide concentration stands at 380 parts per million,
already the highest levels likely to have been experienced on Earth for
740,000 years.
Sir
David said that his grim prediction was based on an optimistic reading of
the world's ability to control its carbon emissions. Many scientists
believe emissions could rise to 550 million parts
per million and even larger temperature rises.
"The
temperature rise could well be in excess of 3C and yet we are saying 500
parts per million in the atmosphere is probably the best we can achieve
through global agreement," Sir David said.
He
said that further increases in CO2 concentrations could put the situation
beyond the planet's control.
"If
we go beyond 500 parts per million we reach levels of temperature increase
and sea level rise in terms of the coming century which would be extremely
difficult for world populations to manage," he told BBC Radio 4's Today
programme.
Until
recently, the Government has been committed to restraining global carbon
emissions to around 475 parts per million, believing that such a
concentration could keep temperatures rising more than 2C. The Kyoto
Protocols, signed in 1997 and set to expire in 2012, aimed at a
concentration of 450 parts per million.
Last
month Margaret Beckett, the Environment Secretary, admitted that the
Government was set to miss its target of reducing Britain's
emissions by 20 per cent by 2010, saying it was more likely to achieve cuts
of between 15 and 18 per cent.
Sir
David said it was crucial to confront the gloomy outlook with information
and investment.
"We
don’t have to succumb to a state of despondency where we say that there is
nothing we can do so let’s just carry on living as per usual. It is very
important to understand that we can manage the risks to our
population," he said.
"What
we are talking about here is something that will play through over decades
- we are talking 100 years or so. We need to begin that process of
investment. It is going to be a major challenge for the developing
countries."
But
Sir David, who has been criticised in the past for restraining his warnings
on the advice of Government ministers, had stern words for politicians who
say that carbon emissions can be controlled by the use of new,
environmentally-friendly technologies.
"There
is a difference between optimism and head in the sand," he said.
"Quite clearly what we have to do as we move forward with these
discussions is see that this consensus position of the scientific community
is brought right into the table where the discussions are taking
place."
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